Propuesta metodológica para predecir el próximo lugar de actuación de un pederasta en serie.

  1. Maldonado-Guzmán, Diego J. 1
  2. Salafranca-Barreda, Daniel 2
  1. 1 Universidad de Cádiz
    info

    Universidad de Cádiz

    Cádiz, España

    ROR https://ror.org/04mxxkb11

  2. 2 Centro Crimina para el Estudio y Prevención de la Delincuencia. Universidad Miguel Hernández
Revista:
International e-journal of criminal sciences

ISSN: 1988-7949

Año de publicación: 2019

Título del ejemplar: Special Issue

Número: 14

Tipo: Artículo

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Otras publicaciones en: International e-journal of criminal sciences

Resumen

En este estudio se propone una metodología para identificar las zonas de la ciudad donde es más probable que actúe próximamente un pederasta en serie. Los autores hipotetizan que el análisis de variables ambientales comunes a todos los lugares donde actuó el pederasta permitirá identificar el resto de las zonas con similares características ambientales, siendo en esas zonas donde más probablemente actúe la próxima vez. Se parte para ello de un caso de pederasta en serie ficticio. Tras aplicar el método propuesto, basado en un análisis de comparación por pares, se observa que dos de las cinco escenas del crimen se sitúan en la zona señalada como de máxima probabilidad, una tercera en la zona de “riesgo muy alto” y las dos escenas restantes recaen sobre la tercera zona señalada como de “alto riesgo”. Los resultados indican una estimación moderada de los delitos ya cometidos y, además, aparecen dos puntos calientes nuevos que se corresponden con las zonas de actuación futura más probables. Se discuten al final una serie de limitaciones.  In this paper, a methodology is proposed to identify the areas of the city where a serial child molester is most likely to act in the near future. The authors hypothesize that the analysis of environmental variables common to all the places where the pedophile acted will allow identifying the rest of the zones with similar environmental characteristics, being in those areas where it is most likely to act next time. A case of pedophile in fictitious series is split for this. After applying the proposed method, based on a comparison analysis by pairs, it is observed that two of the five scenes of the crime are located in the area indicated as maximum probability, a third in the area of "very high risk" and both remaining scenes fall on the third area designated as "high risk". The results indicate a moderate estimate of the crimes already committed and, in addition, two new hot spots appear that correspond to the most likely future areas of action. A series of limitations are discussed at the end.

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